The growth rate of power station equipment slows down and the industry grows to the top of the stage

　　According to statistics from the China Machinery Industry Federation, the continuous shortage of electricity in the past few years has led to rapid growth of electrical products represented by power generation equipment. However, since 2005, the growth rate of power generation equipment production has slowed down significantly. In the first quarter of 2007, the output of power generation equipment was 23.99 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth rate of only 5.85%. It is expected that the annual output will remain at around 1 trillion kilowatts.

　　Judging from the statistical data of the power plant equipment sub-industry in 2006, the sales revenue of boilers, generators, and steam turbines increased by 28%, 32%, and 40% respectively; their total profits increased by 23%, 22%, and 4%, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of the total amount was lower than the growth rate of revenue in the same period, and the industry growth rate dropped significantly.

　　From the perspective of the boiler and steam turbine industries, after the second half of 2006, the profit growth rate of thermal power equipment began to be lower than the revenue growth rate, and the growth rate fell below 25%. It has become a fact that the industry growth rate has fallen sharply.

　　In 2006, the national installed capacity of power generation exceeded 622 million kilowatts, and is expected to exceed 700 million kilowatts by the end of this year. In the past three years, the elasticity of electricity supply has far exceeded the elasticity of demand, mainly to make up for the lack of electricity supply in the past. The average annual installed capacity growth rate is 16.7%, which is much higher than the GDP growth rate over the same period. It is estimated that the newly commissioned installed capacity in 2007 will exceed 95 million kilowatts. The national power supply and demand situation will continue to ease, the utilization hours will basically drop to a reasonable level, the elasticity of supply and demand will gradually decline, and the domestic power station equipment industry demand will soon peak.

　　Among them, the demand for hydropower, nuclear power equipment and high-parameter large-capacity units is relatively good. Due to the concentration of enterprises producing hydropower, nuclear power, and high-end equipment, and with the gradual increase in the localization rate, the market share is likely to continue to expand.

　　In addition, the expansion of overseas markets and the shutdown of small thermal power plants will help smooth the cyclical fluctuations in domestic demand. After the rapid development and technological progress in the past three years, domestic power generation equipment manufacturing giants have entered the ranks of international advanced manufacturing technology, increasing their market share in difficult technical fields such as nuclear power, and gradually participating in international market competition, which can be partially compensated The negative impact of a sharp decline in total domestic demand. In addition, according to the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the planned shutdown of 60 million kilowatts of low-efficiency small thermal power units can smooth the fluctuations in domestic demand.

　　Industry insiders believe that 2006-2007 was the peak of the current round of demand for the power station equipment industry. The new installed capacity in the year after 2007 may tend to decline steadily. However, in view of the increase in export business, some small thermal power plants will be phased out, and the annual output of power station equipment may be relatively high. smooth. At the same time, the industry may reach the top of the stage, and the annual demand growth rate is not significant. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" stage, the base of installed capacity increases, and high-tech technologies are matured (1 million kilowatt supercritical and ultra-supercritical units, and core technologies for nuclear power and wind power), and the industry growth rate is expected to pick up.

　　The boom cycle is rising rapidly, the power transmission and transformation equipment industry is optimistic for a long time

　　In 2006, the revenue and profit of power transmission and transformation equipment increased by 25% to 50% year-on-year. Affected by the stabilization of raw material prices, with the exception of wires and cables, the profit growth rate of the other transmission and transformation electronics industries during the same period was higher than the revenue growth rate, and the industry still maintained a relatively rapid growth. In 2006, the profit growth rate of transformers and power distribution switch products was nearly 10 percentage points higher than the revenue growth rate, reflecting the relatively high industry boom. Statistics show that the power transmission and transformation equipment industry is still in a period of rapid growth.

　　The prosperity of the power transmission and transformation industry is rising rapidly, and the main categories of products have shown rapid growth in 2006, with revenue growth rates of 20% to 50%. Industry insiders believe that demand can still maintain an average annual growth rate of 20% to 30% in the next five years, the industry's prosperity continues to rise, and the annual profit growth rate is expected to reach 20% to 50%.

　　During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the total planned investment scale of State Grid and China Southern Power Grid exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, equivalent to twice that of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period. The average annual growth rate of power grid investment is expected to be 20%. Therefore, the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" "In this period, the construction of power grids will surely usher in a leap-forward development, and it is undoubtedly a good time to invest in the power transmission and distribution equipment industry.

　　Looking forward to the next 10 to 20 years, China's power grid investment will continue to maintain rapid growth. From the perspective of investment proportion, the focus of future power grid investment is on backbone power grids and the transformation of large city power grids. Therefore, the high-end and low-end power transmission and transformation equipment industries will face the industry boom. Due to the relatively high barriers and monopolistic competition in the high-end equipment industry, the industry is more optimistic about high-end power transmission and transformation equipment. In addition, from a long-term perspective, the large-scale launch of UHV after 2009 can ensure the long-term growth of high-end equipment in the future. The total investment in UHV is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan, and companies that can participate in the UHV equipment market will have a longer boom.

　　Entering a period of meager profit, the pattern of the power environmental protection equipment industry will change

　　Energy-saving and environmental protection industries are the key industries encouraged during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, and market demand is not a problem. It is understood that 2004-2006 was the peak of the newly installed desulfurization market. After 2007, the new market demand for thermal power supporting facilities has shrunk sharply. At the same time, there are more than 100 million kilowatts of desulfurization equipment to be installed in the old units, and the stock market has a share of about 20 billion yuan. It is predicted that from 2007 to 2009, the market demand of the power environmental protection equipment industry can still maintain a relatively high level of demand.

　　Because of the huge profits and low entry barriers in the early power environmental protection equipment industry, many companies have poured in. However, the subsequent fierce competition has greatly reduced the overall profitability of the industry, and the entire industry has entered an era of meager profit. At present, the market price is generally at 200 yuan per kilowatt, and the industry's gross profit margin is low.

　　The key technology of the desulfurization project is the process design, which can enter the industry through the purchase of mature foreign technologies. Due to the low barriers to entry in the industry, the current five major power generation groups are participating in the desulfurization equipment manufacturing industry, which intensifies the competitive situation in the industry. There is no power generation group. The business situation of companies with superior shareholder backgrounds is not optimistic.

　　Facing development opportunities, the new energy equipment manufacturing industry needs to be supported

　　Renewable energy refers to non-fossil energy such as wind energy, solar energy, hydro energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, etc., which is also commonly referred to as new energy. Internationally, renewable energy has become an alternative energy source besides conventional energy sources such as fossil fuels. Although renewable energy currently accounts for less than 2% of global energy consumption, its application potential is huge.

　　my country is rich in new energy and renewable energy resources such as solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy, and has broad prospects for development and utilization. At present, my country's plan for new energy power generation is to focus on wind power generation, focusing on the development of single-unit wind turbines with a capacity of 600 kilowatts and above; solar power generation, biomass power generation, geothermal power generation, and ocean power generation should continue to do a good job of pilot projects. It is planned that by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the installed capacity of new energy power generation will reach 20 million kilowatts, accounting for about 2.3% of the total installed capacity.

　　According to the current plan, by 2020, the total installed capacity of small hydropower in my country will reach 75 million kilowatts, replacing 80 million tons of standard coal annually; the installed capacity of wind power can reach 40 million kilowatts, replacing 30 million tons of standard coal annually; biomass power generation The installed capacity reaches 20 million kilowatts, which can replace 28 million tons of standard coal annually; the development of bio-oil can reach an annual output of 20 million tons of standard coal; the total heat collection area of ​​solar water heaters reaches 270 million square meters, which replaces more than 100 million tons of standard coal annually.

　　Experts said that if the above development goals can be achieved, my country's total renewable energy development and utilization will reach 300 million tons of standard coal by 2020, accounting for about 10% of the total primary energy consumption at that time.

　　my country's development of new energy is mainly based on wind power. It seems that the policy support for the development of new energy is not yet in place, which restricts the rapid development of the industry in the short term. In the long run, wind power will be the most promising new energy industry in China, and it is expected that the long-term average annual growth rate will exceed 30% in the future.