Experts pointed out that in the next two to three years, the market capacity of some high-voltage switchgear will continue to expand and have good market prospects.

　　In recent years, China’s power industry has maintained a momentum of rapid development, with installed power generation capacity increasing at an annual rate of 8%. The urban and rural power grid transformation project implemented in 1998, and the subsequent implementation of the western development and west-to-east power transmission projects have created huge market demand for the transmission and distribution equipment manufacturing industry, and the market scale has expanded rapidly. Statistics show that China will add 30 million kilowatts of installed capacity in the next two to three years, and the annual installed capacity will rise to 25 million kilowatts, that is, the annual increase in installed capacity can increase by 30% to 40%, and some switchgear that is more direct with the newly installed capacity The market capacity will have greater expansion, and there will be good market demand.

　　The demand for switching appliances with voltage levels of 330 to 550 kV will continue to rise. With the increase in the average annual installed capacity during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period than that during the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, the main grid of the 330kV voltage level power grid in Northwest China will be further improved and constructed. There will be an increase during the Five-Year Plan period, and the annual demand for the latter part of the Tenth Five-Year Plan period is expected to be about 180-200 circuit breakers (including GIS). From the perspective of the variety composition, although the tank circuit breaker has the characteristics of small size and good seismic performance, the price of the ceramic column circuit breaker plus a single SF6 current transformer is lower than that of the tank circuit breaker, so the proportion of the ceramic column circuit breaker will be lower. Has increased. Its composition proportion is about 35% GIS, porcelain column type (P-GCB) accounts for 35%, and tank type (T-GCB) accounts for 30%.

　　The annual demand for circuit breakers with voltage levels of 126 to 252 kV is nearly 7,500 units. In the next few years, due to the continued transformation of urban and rural power grids, as well as the restrictions on the use of 35 kV voltage levels in the urban grid and the replacement of high-voltage oil-less circuit breakers by SF6 circuit breakers, 126-252 kV products will maintain a relatively high growth rate. It is estimated that at the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the annual demand for 126-252 kV circuit breakers will reach about 6000-7500 sets. From the perspective of product structure, oil-free products of this voltage level will continue to develop, but due to economic constraints in the Midwest, low-oil products will still be used in small quantities. It is estimated that at the end of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, the production volume of 252kV SF6 will reach 100%. Among them, the proportion of GIS products in SF6 circuit breakers can be further increased to 30%. Ceramic column self-energy arc extinguishing products account for 50%. Style products accounted for 20%. From the perspective of market demand in the future, the compressed air SF6 circuit breaker should be the hot choice for occasions with large short-circuit current and short breaking time.

　　GIS equipment will become the product of choice. GIS equipment has the advantages of strong complete set, easy installation and construction, resistance to harsh environments, high reliability, and low maintenance. To build high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage substations under severe environmental conditions such as heat and humidity, high altitude, and cold, GIS equipment will be the first choice. . In recent years, the quality of GIS equipment with a voltage level of 126 to 252 kV produced by some factories in China has been greatly improved, and the reliability is consistent with that of foreign countries. Therefore, the use of GIS equipment will further increase. At the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, the annual demand for GIS equipment with a voltage level of 126 to 252 kV can reach 1500 to 1600 intervals. As domestic enterprises expand the production of 550 kV voltage level, GIS equipment still has great resistance. Therefore, the key to further market development is to improve the credibility of users of the product.

　　The proportion of open or semi-enclosed combined electrical appliances based on circuit breakers has increased. At present, semi-enclosed or open outdoor combination electrical appliances based on SF6 circuit breakers have been produced at home and abroad. The size of this combination electrical appliance is slightly larger than GIS equipment, but smaller than ordinary open type, and the price is lower than that of GIS equipment. Normally open high, it is expected that this type of combined electrical appliances will be expected to expand during the Tenth Five-Year Plan.

　　Medium-voltage metal-enclosed switchgear will have a greater growth. Medium voltage metal-enclosed switchgear is the basic equipment of the power grid and the basic equipment of the national economy. With the accelerated development of the electric power industry and the rapid development of the national economy, medium-voltage switchgear will have a greater growth. It is expected that it will reach 210,000 at the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. If the ratio of the circuit breaker cabinet to the load switch cabinet and the contactor cabinet is approximately Measured by 2:1, the circuit breaker cabinet has 140,000 surfaces, and the load switch and contactor cabinet has 70,000 surfaces.

　　The main switching components of medium voltage can reach 250,000 units. At present, there are many types of switch products, but from the perspective of the main protection and control functions and the use of high-voltage switch cabinets, the main components are circuit breakers, load switches and contactors. At present, the number of load switches and contactors used in medium-voltage power grids abroad is significantly higher than that of circuit breakers, while the opposite is true in China. Due to the gradual adjustment of equipment policies in China, the use ratio of load switches and contactors will increase day by day. The market demand for 12 kV main switching components and load switches will reach 250,000 units at the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Among them, there are about 167,000 circuit breakers, and about 83,000 load switches and contactors. 40.5kV main switching components are still dominated by circuit breakers. In the next few years, circuit breakers will still be the main market demand, but load switches will also start. The total number of 40.5kV main switching components is about 16,500, of which 16,000 are circuit breakers. , 500 load switches.

　　The prefabricated substation has a broad application prospect. The power grid terminal substation is the intersection of the medium and low voltage power grids. In recent years, China has gradually introduced and developed substations enclosed by metal casings and pre-manufactured, assembled and debugged in factories. Because prefabricated substations have the advantages of strong complete sets, easy construction and installation, reduced floor space, and no need to build houses, they have the prospect of being widely used in terminal substations. At present, prefabricated substations in some countries have accounted for more than 80% of terminal substations. According to relevant data estimates, the current annual construction volume of China's 10 kV distribution network terminal substations is 80,000 to 100,000. If 60% of the pre-installed substations are used in the future, 50,000 to 60,000 pre-installed substations will be needed each year. The current annual demand has reached 15,000, and it is estimated that by the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, the annual demand for 12 kV pre-installed substations will reach 25,000 to 30,000. The pre-installed substations are miniaturized, highly reliable, suitable for various environments, and personalized products that can meet the needs of various users will be more popular.